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SUMMARY:UK Ash Dieback: Quantifying the Risk of Airborne Spore Incursion -
  James Alexander Cox
DTSTART:20130502T153000Z
DTEND:20130502T160000Z
UID:TALK44280@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Megan Cooper
DESCRIPTION:Chalara dieback of ash is a serious disease of ash trees cause
 d by fungus Chalara fraxinea\, which was first reported in the UK in 2012.
  We use a numerical atmospheric dispersion model to quantify the geographi
 c distribution of risk to the UK of airborne incursion of C. fraxinea asco
 spores from infectious sources in Continental Europe. The model uses Met O
 ffice meteorological data and includes the effects of turbulent spore clou
 d dilution\, loss of spore viability due to UV exposure\, and washout due 
 to precipitation. This is a large scale study involving simulation of a co
 ntinental-scale source region across multiple decades. We find strong spat
 ial correlation between predicted disease risk and observed infections in 
 the wider environment.
LOCATION:Biffen Lecture Theater\, Department of Genetics
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