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SUMMARY:Sample-selection bias in the historical heights literature - Profe
 ssor Tim Guinnane\, Department of Economics\, Yale University
DTSTART:20130513T114500Z
DTEND:20130513T130000Z
UID:TALK44540@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:31344
DESCRIPTION:An extensive literature uses anthropometric measures\, typical
 ly heights\, to draw inferences about living standards in the past. This l
 iterature's influence reaches beyond economic history\; the results of his
 torical heights research appear as crucial components in development econo
 mics and related fields. The historical heights literature often relies on
  micro-samples drawn from sub-populations that are themselves selected: ex
 amples include volunteer soldiers\, prisoners\, and runaway slaves\, among
  others. Contributors to the heights literature sometimes acknowledge that
  their samples might not be random draws from the population cohorts in qu
 estion\, but rely on normality alone to correct for potential selection in
 to the sample. We use a simple Roy model to show that selection cannot be 
 resolved simply by augmenting truncated samples for left-tail shortfall. S
 tatistical tests for departures from normality cannot detect selection in 
 Monte Carlo exercises for small to moderate levels of self-selection\, obv
 iating a standard test for selection in the heights literature. We show st
 rong evidence of selection using micro-data on the heights of British sold
 iers in the late eighteen and nineteenth centuries. Consequently\, widely 
 accepted results in the literature may not reflect variations in living st
 andards during a soldier's formative years\; observed heights could be pre
 dominantly determined by the process determining selection into the sample
 . A survey of the current historical heights literature illustrates the pr
 oblem for the three most common sources: military personnel\, slaves\, and
  prisoners. \n\nhttp://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2261335
LOCATION:HB101\, Sir William Hardy Building Seminar Room
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