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SUMMARY:North Atlantic Oscillation: teleconnections\, mechanisms and long 
 range predictability - Adam Scaife (Met Office Hadley Centre)
DTSTART:20130916T100000Z
DTEND:20130916T110000Z
UID:TALK45557@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Scott Hosking
DESCRIPTION:The NAO is the single most important pattern of variability fo
 r year to year changes in UK and Northern European winter climate.  Howeve
 r\, recent forecast systems have shown only low levels of skill in predict
 ing the NAO and European and North American surface winter climate at seas
 onal lead times. In this talk we will examine teleconnections to the NAO f
 rom a variety of predictable drivers and reassess the seasonal predictabil
 ity of the NAO and winter north Atlantic climate using a new long range fo
 recast system.  We will demonstrate that the surface North Atlantic Oscill
 ation and key aspects of European and North American winter climate were i
 n fact highly predictable in recent decades.  Unprecedented levels of skil
 l in retrospective winter forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillat
 ion\, near surface temperature\, wind speed and storminess imply that thes
 e seasonal winter forecasts also have high potential value for planning an
 d adaptation to climate variability.  Further analysis of forecast ensembl
 es suggests that while we have now achieved useful levels of seasonal fore
 cast skill\, key sources of predictability for the NAO are still only part
 ially represented and there is further untapped predictability.
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Room 307
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