BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk// X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Dealing with climate hazard: leadership towards adaptation is the key - Professor Bob Carter of the Institute of Public Affairs\, Melbourne DTSTART:20130607T154500Z DTEND:20130607T164500Z UID:TALK45694@talks.cam.ac.uk CONTACT:Andy Buckley DESCRIPTION:An alternative view has emerged regarding the most cost-effect ive way in which to deal with the undoubted hazards of climate change. Thi s view points towards setting a policy of preparation for\, and adaptation to\, change as it occurs\, which is distinctly different from the emphasi s given by most western parliaments to the mitigation of global warming by curbing carbon dioxide emissions. Ultimately\, the rationale for choosing between policies of mitigation or adaptation must lie with an analysis of the underlying scientific evidence about climate change.\n\nThe vigorous public debate over possibly dangerous human-caused global warming is bedev illed by two things. First\, an inadequacy of the historical temperature m easurements that are used to reconstruct the average global temperature st atistic. And second\, fuelled by lobbyists and media interests\, an unfort unate tribal emotionalism that has arisen between groups of persons who ar e depicted as either climate “alarmists” or climate “deniers”. In reality\, the great majority of scientists fit into neither of these categ ories\, but rather hold balanced and non-extreme views about the complex i ssue of climate change.\n\nIn this context\, all competent scientists acce pt (i) that global climate has always changed\, and always will\; (ii) tha t human activities (not just carbon dioxide emissions) definitely affect l ocal climate\, and have the potential\, summed\, to measurably affect glob al climate\; and (iii) that carbon dioxide is a mild greenhouse gas. The t rue scientific debate\, then\, is about none of these issues\, but rather about the sign and magnitude of any global human effect\, and its likely s ignificance when considered in the context of natural climate change\n\nFo r many different reasons\, which include various types of bias and unaccou nted for artefacts\, the thermometer record provides only an indicative hi story of average global temperature (AGT) over the last c.150 years. The 1 979-2012 satellite MSU record is our only acceptably accurate estimate of AGT\, yet being but 30 years in length it represents just one climate data point. The second most reliable estimate of AGT\, collected by radiosonde s on weather balloons\, extends back to 1958\, and the portion that overla ps with the MSU record matches it well. Taken together\, these two records indicate that no significant warming trend has occurred since 1958\, thou gh both exhibit a 0.2 deg. C step increase in AGT across the strong 1998 E l Nino. In addition\, the currently quiet sun\, and the lack of warming ov er the last 16 years\, indicates that cooling may be the greatest climate hazard over the next few decades.\n\nClimate change takes place over geolo gical time scales of thousands through millions of years\, yet unfortunate ly geological datasets do not provide direct measurements\, least of all o f AGT. Instead\, they comprise local or regional proxy records of climate change of varying quality. Nonetheless\, numerous high quality palaeo-clim ate records\, and especially those from ice cores and deep-sea mud cores\, demonstrate that no unusual or untoward changes in climate occurred in th e 20th and early 21st century. Despite an estimated spend of more than $10 0 billion since 1990 looking for a human global temperature signal\, asses sed against geological reality no compelling empirical evidence yet exists for a measurable\, let alone worrisome\, human impact on AGT.\n\nA key is sue on which all scientists agree is that natural climate-related events a nd change are real\, and exact very real human and environmental costs. Th ese hazards include storms\, floods\, droughts\, bushfires\, and temperatu re steps and longer term cooling or warming trends. It is certain that the se natural climate-related events and change will continue\, and that from time to time human and environmental damage will be wrought. Extreme weat her events (and their consequences) are natural disasters of similar chara cter to earthquakes\, tsunami and volcanic eruptions\, in that in our pres ent state of knowledge they can neither be predicted far ahead nor prevent ed once underway. The matter of dealing with future climate change\, there fore\, is primarily one of risk appraisal and minimization\, and that for natural risks which vary from place to place around the globe.\n\nThe diff iculties encountered around the world in implementing carbon dioxide tradi ng or taxation partly reflects that such mechanisms are expensive\, disrup tive (reducing growth and causing unemployment) and ineffectual – and th at even should warming soon resume\, let alone if cooling occurs. Carbon d ioxide reduction is therefore neither an adequate national climate policy nor necessarily even a desirable part of one. Climate change as a natural hazard is as much a geological as it is a meteorological issue. Thus it ne eds to be managed in the same way as other geohazards\, i.e.\, by monitori ng for the onset of dangerous events and by having a civil defense respons e plan to deal with events as and when they happen.\n\nPolicymakers in USA \, Canada\, Japan\, New Zealand and probably Australia have already abando ned the illusory goal of “preventing global warming” by reducing carbo n dioxide emissions. Instead\, dealing with climate reality as it unfolds represents the most prudent\, practical and cost-effective solution to the global warming/climate change issue. Such a policy of adaptation is also strongly precautionary against any possibly dangerous\, human-caused clima te trends that might emerge in future.\n\nProfessor Robert (Bob) M. Carter \nEmeritus Fellow\, Institute for Public Affairs (Melbourne)\nChief Scienc e Advisor\, International Climate Science Coalition (Toronto)\nMember\, Ad visory Council\, Global Warming Policy Foundation (London)\n\nAuthor of Cl imate: the Counter Consensus\n(http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/new_page _1a_CTCC.htm)\n LOCATION:Tilley Lecture Theatre\, Department of Earth Sciences\, Downing S treet END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR