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SUMMARY:Veterinary epidemiology: where mathematical modellers \, biologist
 s\, animal scientists\, and veterinarians (should) meet - Klinkenberg\, D\
 , de Jong\, M (Universiteit Utrecht/Wageningen University)
DTSTART:20130819T160000Z
DTEND:20130819T170000Z
UID:TALK46689@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:Infectious disease problems in farmed animals are studied by m
 athematical modellers and veterinary epidemiologists\, often without optim
 al use of each others proficiency. Quality of mathematical models and acce
 ptance by non-modelling epidemiologists and veterinarians should profit fr
 om using all knowledge that is present in biological and veterinary commun
 ities. More than in other areas of infectious disease epidemiology\, veter
 inary epidemiology allows for detailed observational studies with repeated
  measurements and for experimental approaches. We will discuss development
 s in veterinary epidemiological modelling\, focussing on heterogeneity and
  data analysis\, identified in the 1993 Newton Institute meeting on Epidem
 ic models (Mollison\, 1995). Heterogeneity appeared important in modelling
 : (i) Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)\, with large variation in inc
 ubation times and initially very uncertain predictions of incidence\; (ii)
  Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD)\, with variation in susceptibility\, infecti
 vity\, and clinical outcome in different animal species\; (iii) Bluetongue
 \, with spatial heterogeneity in vector abundance\, to be extracted from v
 ector trapping data and remote sensing\; (iv) Avian Influenza\, with inter
 actions between ecology of migratory birds\, contact patterns of poultry\,
  evolution of strains\, and the risk of a human pandemic. Experimental dat
 a have been used to quantify BSE incubation times and transmission heterog
 eneity between animal species in FMD\, to address the scaling of contact r
 ates between different settings (as in De Jong et al\, 1995)\, and to stud
 y environmental transmission. For the future\, we foresee the use of more 
 genomic data to address heterogeneities\, both in pathogens and hosts. We 
 advocate use of mechanistically based decision rules to complement predict
 ions by detailed simulations or complex mathematical models. These rules w
 ill facilitate the dialog with non-modellers if they have a biological int
 erpretation and can be substantiated by data. \n
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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