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SUMMARY:Understanding changing BMI distributions in England\, their causes
  and long term consequences - Professor Klim McPherson\, Visiting Professo
 r in Epidemiology\, Nuffield Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology\, Un
 iversity of Oxford
DTSTART:20131115T130000Z
DTEND:20131115T140000Z
UID:TALK47177@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Lucy Lloyd
DESCRIPTION:Obesity is a threat to people's health and since the 1980's ha
 s been increasing in prevalence almost everywhere. In 2005 the Govt Chief 
 Scientist put obesity high on the long term policy agenda in the Foresight
  project\, designed to anticipate the consequences of such possibly dramat
 ic societal changes.  The report\, published in 2007\, essentially outline
 d the estimated changes in illness and mortality rates in England and warn
 ed that unless we could overcome the inexorable growth in population BMI\,
  the population would be sicker and the extra NHS cost could amount to £5
 0bn pa by 2050.   This led to the establishment of the first cross governm
 ent initiative to tackle obesity anywhere in the world: ‘healthy weight\
 , healthy lives’. Over the last six years\, we have continued to refine 
 the obesity micro simulation modelling and have worked with the WHO\, OECD
 \, European Commission as well as numerous governments and universities ar
 ound the world. We now have simulations for over eighty countries. Six yea
 rs on\, the team have rerun the Tackling Obesities simulation to see how t
 he predictions made in 2007 have changed and whether any impact can be att
 ributed to the extensive efforts that have been made in England/UK to amel
 iorate those trends since 2007. The results will be discussed.
LOCATION:Large Seminar Room\, 1st Floor\, Institute of Public Health\, Uni
 versity Forvie Site\, Robinson Way\, Cambridge
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