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SUMMARY:Individual risk: does it exist? - Phil Dawid (Statistical Laborato
 ry\, Univeristy of Cambridge)
DTSTART:20131023T120000Z
DTEND:20131023T133000Z
UID:TALK47725@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Christopher Clarke
DESCRIPTION:Writing recently about her decision to have a preventive doubl
 e mastectomy\, Angelina Jolie said: "My doctors estimated that I had an 87
  percent risk of\nbreast cancer and a 50 percent risk of ovarian cancer\, 
 although the risk is different in the case of each woman."\n\nWhere do suc
 h figures come from\, and what if anything do they mean? Is it even possib
 le to assign risk values to individual events?  I shall consider\nvarious 
 statistical and philosophical attempts to grapple with these issues.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Department of History and Philosophy of Science
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