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SUMMARY:Diagnostic and forecast of future bubbles and crashes - Sornette\,
  D (ETH Zrich)
DTSTART:20131119T145000Z
DTEND:20131119T154000Z
UID:TALK48899@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:We report recent advances on the calibration of financial bubb
 les\, defined as transient super-exponential stochastic price trajectories
  that reflect positive feedbacks. The results include advanced methods of 
 calibration to address the quasi-degenerate or soft-mode problem in the es
 timation procedure\, the FTS-GARCH model (finite-time singularity  GARCH) 
 and the use of self-consistent rational expectation bubble models with sto
 chastic finite-time singularities.   We also present results of the Financ
 ial Crisis Observatory (www.er.ethz.ch/fco)  at ETH Zurich\, which aims at
  testing and quantifying rigorously\, in a systematic way and on a large s
 cale the hypothesis that financial bubbles can diagnosed with a rigorous s
 cientific methodology before they burst.  \n
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Newton Institute Gatehouse
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