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SUMMARY:Cambridge Network event: David Spiegelhalter\, “Handling uncerta
 inty: what can different disciplines learn from each other?” - David Spi
 egelhalter 
DTSTART:20140211T180000Z
DTEND:20140211T203000Z
UID:TALK49442@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Louise Rushworth
DESCRIPTION:We’re delighted to welcome David Spiegelhalter\, Winton Prof
 essor for the Public Understanding of Risk\, and Professor of Biostatistic
 s\, at the University of Cambridge to speak to Cambridge Network members o
 n Tuesday 11th February 2014.\n\n“Handling uncertainty: what can differe
 nt disciplines learn from each other?”\n\nWe all have to juggle ‘ratio
 nal’ and ‘emotional’ responses to risk and uncertainty\, and good co
 mmunication should mean that audiences are more immune to misleading anecd
 otes.   When we are fairly happy about putting numbers on risks\, then the
 re are established methods for using words\, numbers and graphics\, and I 
 shall briefly look at recent work in various fields\, including communicat
 ing the benefits and harms of cancer screening.\n\nThings get trickier whe
 n we acknowledge we don’t really understand what is going on\, and have 
 qualms about a formal analysis.  I will compare about how different groups
  - in security\, toxicology\, health care\, climate change\, finance and s
 o on - have come up with different strategies for communicating these deep
 er uncertainties\, and consider proposed 'scales' for uncertainty.  \n\n\n
 About David Spiegelhalter\n\nDavid  is Winton Professor for the Public Und
 erstanding of Risk\, and Professor of Biostatistics\, at the University of
  Cambridge.  His background is in medical statistics\, particularly the us
 e of Bayesian methods in clinical trials\, health technology assessment an
 d drug safety.\n\nIn his post he leads a small team (UnderstandingUncertai
 nty.org) that attempts to improve the way in which the quantitative aspect
 s of risk and uncertainty are discussed in society.  He works closely with
  the Millennium Mathematics Project in Cambridge in trying to develop an e
 xciting treatment of probability and risk for mathematics education.  He g
 ives many presentations to schools and others\, advises organisations and 
 government agencies on risk communication\, and is a regular commentator o
 n current risk issues.  He presented the BBC4 documentary ‘Tails you Win
 : the Science of Chance”\, and in 2011 competed in Winter Wipeout on BBC
 1.\n\nHe has over 190 refereed publications and is co-author of 6 textbook
 s. He is an Honorary Fellow of the Institute for Risk Management\, an Hono
 rary Fellow of he Royal College of Physicians\, was elected Fellow of the 
 Royal Society in 2005 and awarded an OBE in 2006 for services to medical s
 tatistics.\n\nHe is @d_spiegel on Twitter\, and his home page is http://ww
 w.statslab.cam.ac.uk/Dept/People/Spiegelhalter/davids.html\n\n \n\n\nTo bo
 ok: If you would like to attend this event please click on this link - htt
 p://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/events/cambridge-network-event-david-spiege
 lhalter-11-feb-14/\n
LOCATION:Hauser Forum\, 3 Charles Babbage Road\, Cambridge\, CB3 0GT
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