BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Detecting asymptomatic infection is necessary for real-time foreca
 sting of major outbreaks of disease - Robin Thompson
DTSTART:20140606T123000Z
DTEND:20140606T125500Z
UID:TALK51410@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Megan Cooper
DESCRIPTION:When an infectious disease is introduced into a host populatio
 n of plants\, the pathogen typically either dies out without causing a lar
 ge epidemic or goes on to become widespread in the population.  Mathematic
 al models can be used to predict whether the pathogen will die out or whet
 her a major outbreak will occur.  For all common infectious diseases\, ind
 ividuals are asymptomatic immediately after acquiring the pathogen.  Deter
 mining the number of individuals that are infected but not yet symptomatic
  is vital for accurately calculating the probability of a major outbreak. 
  We show that estimating the quantity of asymptomatic infecteds is as impo
 rtant as traditional parameter estimation (focussed on estimating traits o
 f the disease\, such as the infection rate\, incubation and infectious per
 iods).  The main implication of our findings is that developing affordable
  diagnostic tests to detect infection in asymptomatic infected individuals
  is of critical importance in plant epidemiology.  Our results are also ap
 plicable to human and animal diseases.
LOCATION:Department of Plant Sciences\, Large Lecture Theatre
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR