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SUMMARY:This time is different: causes and consequences of British banking
  instability\, 1830-2010 - Dr Christopher Coyle\, Queen's University\, Bel
 fast
DTSTART:20140526T160000Z
DTEND:20140526T173000Z
UID:TALK52005@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Duncan Needham
DESCRIPTION:This paper addresses two questions: (1) What are the macroecon
 omic indicators of banking instability? and (2) What are the consequences 
 of banking instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of b
 ank share prices from 1830-2010 to assess the stability of the British ban
 king system\, we find that banking instability has grown more severe towar
 ds the final quarter of the twentieth century. We also find that interest 
 rates\, inflation\, lending growth and equity prices are consistent macroe
 conomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long-run. Furthermor
 e\, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields\, we find that the
 re is a significant long-run causal relationship between banking instabili
 ty and the credit risk premium faced by UK businesses.
LOCATION:Sidgwick Hall (or Old Dining Room)\, Newnham College
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