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SUMMARY:&quot\;Cool War to Cold: Perspectives of the Ukraine Crisis for Ru
 ssia and the West&quot\; - Demetrius A. Floudas\, Hughes Hall\, University
  of Cambridge
DTSTART:20140609T163000Z
DTEND:20140609T181500Z
UID:TALK52867@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:28740
DESCRIPTION:*Monday 9 June 2014 5:15 for 5:30pm*\n\n_Hughes Hall Special S
 eminar_ \n \n*Peter Richards Room\, Hughes Hall\, Cambridge\, CB1 2EW*\n\n
 The aggravation of the crisis in Ukraine and the possible repercussions th
 at different outcomes may have for the geopolitical stability in Eastern E
 urope and internationally\, will be the theme of this very topical lecture
 .\n\nThe recent incorporation of the Crimean peninsula by the Russian Fede
 ration has been the smoothest and most popular annexation exercise since A
 ustria’s Anschluß in 1938.  Two months later\, the situation in Ukraine
  is rapidly deteriorating\, with the country on the brink of extensive con
 flict that would see the fratricidal civil war spectre of the 1990s return
  to Europe once again.  Despite the Kremlin’s attempts to restrain the a
 spirations of the separatists in eastern Ukraine\, the unrest shows no sig
 n of abating\, whilst the Kiev administration recognises that it is not in
  the position to prevent large-scale secessionist movements.\n\nRussia has
  no interest in absorbing the eastern regions of Ukraine (following the ex
 ample of the Crimea) for a number of reasons\, not least because the count
 ry’s rump western part will then become “more pro-western than the Wes
 t”.  The strategy of Russia in the Ukraine can be summed up in two words
 : *'bosnification'* and *'finlandisation'*: i.e. on one hand the transform
 ation of Ukraine into a non-functioning federal country\, where both commu
 nities have the same rights and will never be able to agree on any signifi
 cant strategy shift\; and on the other\,  the adoption of more malleable f
 oreign policies for Ukraine\, in exchange for the preservation of its sove
 reignty and territorial integrity (minus Crimea).\n In contrast\, the plan
  of the pro-Russian separatists in the East is to declare the eastern part
  of Ukraine autonomous and then accede to the Russian Federation. \n\n* Wi
 ll Eastern Ukraine separate?\n* How is the West likely to react if it does
 ?  \n* Will there be a renewed Cold War\, as some pundits prognosticate?  
 \n* What are the dilemmas facing NATO\, the EU & Russia?\n* What is the re
 al geostrategic significance of all this?\n\nDemetrius Floudas revisits th
 e topic\, subsequent to a number of "commentaries":http://www.grreporter.i
 nfo/en/russia_wants_federal_ukraine/11114 he has already contributed to in
 ternational media on this matter (Voice of America\, "The Financial Times"
 :http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/05/20/guest-post-high-interest-rate
 s-will-hurt-russia-more-than-any-sanctions/ etc.).  This lecture intends t
 o present a quick overview of the situation so far\, and will follow with 
 a deeper scrutiny of its causes\, undercurrents and realities.  The final 
 aim is to evaluate issues that have been largely misinterpreted by western
  analysts and to present an unbiased\, non-partisan appraisal of what real
 ly is at stake in the region.\n\n\n_Demetrius Floudas is an international 
 lawyer and regulatory adviser who has lived and worked in Russia for over 
 a decade\, advising the Ministry of Economic Development & Trade and the F
 ederal Antimonopoly Service.  He served as Team Leader for the Russian Acc
 ession to the World Trade Organisation.  He is a Senior Associate of Hughe
 s Hall\, Cambridge\, Adjunct Professor at the Law Faculty of Immanuel Kant
  Baltic Federal University\, Kaliningrad and a Visiting Professor at the M
 oscow State Institute for International Relations (MGIMO)._\n\n*The lectur
 e will be followed by a wine reception*\n\n\n_*RSVP* to the Events Officer
 \, Hughes Hall\,_\n\n_University of Cambridge\, Cambridge CB1 2EW_\n\n_Ema
 il: events@hughes.cam.ac.uk_\n\n_Tel: +44 (0) 1223 768244_\n
LOCATION:Peter Richards Room\, Hughes Hall\, Cambridge
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