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SUMMARY:Reducing uncertainties in Antarctic ice sheet mass loss projection
 s. - Frank Pattyn\, Université Libre de Bruxelles
DTSTART:20140627T143000Z
DTEND:20140627T150000Z
UID:TALK53207@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Rosie Williams
DESCRIPTION:Climate model projections are often aggregated into multi-mode
 l averages of all models participating in an Intercomparison Project\, suc
 h as CMIP. Several authors have questioned whether this is the best use of
  the information and whether the community is ready to move beyond the ‘
 one-model-one-vote’ approach\, based on the intrinsic quality of each of
  the models.\n\nIce sheet models are not as far developed as climate or oc
 ean models. Many of these models are still struggling over basic thermo-me
 chanical issues related to ice deformation\, while at the same time dispro
 portionate efforts are made on the interaction with the atmosphere\, basal
  hydrology\, sliding\, sediment deformation\, ice/ocean interaction\, calv
 ing\, grounding-line migration\, etc. We can therefore reasonably question
  whether averaging all model results at equal weight is the best strategy 
 and to which extent coupling of ice sheet models that are lacking the repr
 esentation of crucial physical processes\, to other components of the clim
 ate system could lead to spurious errors.\n\nWe now have tools available t
 o test parts of the response of marine ice sheet models to perturbations o
 f climatic and/or oceanic origin. Results show that the type of model as w
 ell as the way boundary conditions are implemented greatly affects the res
 ponse of each ice sheet system. Based on MISMIP experimental output as wel
 l as the experimental response of Antarctic glaciers and drainage basins t
 o ocean perturbations (e.g. Favier et al.\, 2014)\, we provide a guidance 
 for the evaluation of model-response to perturbations on Century time scal
 es.\n
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Room 307
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