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SUMMARY:The aftermath of the demographic transition in the developed world
  - Professor David Reher (Complutense University\, Madrid)
DTSTART:20141120T170000Z
DTEND:20141120T183000Z
UID:TALK55074@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:31344
DESCRIPTION:The Demographic Transition refers to a period in European hist
 ory characterized by important changes in both fertility and mortality. Th
 is period of change dates from the nineteenth century though there is some
  disagreement as to its end. Some experts consider that the Baby Boom of t
 he mid-twentieth century terminated the process of fertility decline\, whi
 le others consider that many of the long-term effects of the demographic t
 ransition are still very much at work as we move into the realm of rapidly
  aging societies. The Demographic Transition led to a series of social and
  economic changes that are component parts of modernization processes in t
 he societies affected. The extent to which these beneficial effects will s
 pread to the developing world that is currently in the midst of its own de
 mographic transition remains to be seen\, but should be considered a disti
 nct possibility. \n\nAn important aspect of the Demographic Transition was
  that childhood mortality declined to very low levels\, thus losing its ab
 ility to constrain people’s reproductive choices. While in the past the 
 number of surviving children was often quite different from the number of 
 children ever born\, achieving a desired number of children often meant ha
 ving large numbers of childbirths. In this way\, high mortality families t
 ended to be high fertility families\, and low mortality ones were low fert
 ility ones. Once mortality reached very low levels\, it became irrelevant 
 for reproductive choices. From a wider viewpoint\, this meant that overall
  demographic systems were no longer tethered to prevailing mortality as th
 ey had been in the past. This key change was followed shortly thereafter b
 y two other changes that completely turned the tables on traditional demog
 raphic stability. In the decade of the 1960s\, artificial synthetic contra
 ception became widespread and a veritable cultural revolution that marked 
 the end of many traditional values. \n\nThe implication of these changes i
 s that we no longer really understand the way demographic systems function
  because none of the tradition constraints on behavior are any longer in p
 lace. The fact that after the 1960s everywhere in the developed world extr
 emely low fertility has been the norm leading to extremely rapid aging and
  increasing difficulties in sustaining all types of welfare systems based 
 on intergenerational transfers of goods and services underscores the impor
 tance of this issue. During the same period\, the internal disparities in 
 reproductive in the developed world have never seemed larger\, with some c
 ountries showing near-replacement fertility while others showing extremely
  low levels\, often as low as 25-35% below replacement. What has happened?
 \n\nMost answers to this question are based exclusively on very recent dat
 a taken from the period of extremely low fertility and may lead to conclus
 ions that are not sensitive to the historical realities involved. The auth
 or proposes an alternate way of looking at fertility behavior in the devel
 oped world and reaches the conclusion that over the past 50-60 year there 
 are some areas in Europe with relatively low fertility with relatively hig
 h fertility. In other words\, significant reproductive disparities have be
 en a part of the landscape of the developed world for a long time. These s
 urprising results suggest that there must be other long-term factors at wo
 rk that help explain reproductive disparities that have held for at least 
 the past half century and perhaps far more. A tentative framework for unde
 rstanding these differences based on social\, political\, cultural and eco
 nomic typologies of countries in the developed world is proposed and discu
 ssed. 
LOCATION:Graham Storey Room\, Trinity Hall
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