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SUMMARY:Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Non-Fundame
 ntals - Professor Joseph Ooi\, National University of Singapore
DTSTART:20141119T160000Z
DTEND:20141119T170000Z
UID:TALK56177@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Clare Eaves
DESCRIPTION:This paper examines the role of non-fundamentals-based sentime
 nt in house price dynamics\, including the well-documented volatility and 
 persistence of house prices during booms and busts. To measure and isolate
  sentiment’s effect\, we employ survey-based indicators that proxy for t
 he sentiment of three major agents in housing markets: home buyers (demand
  side)\, home builders (supply side)\, and lenders (credit suppliers). Aft
 er orthogonalizing each sentiment measure against a broad set of fundament
 al variables\, we find strong and consistent evidence that the changing se
 ntiment of all three sets of market participants predicts house price appr
 eciation in subsequent quarters\, above and beyond the impact of changes i
 n lagged price changes\, fundamentals and market liquidity. Moreover\, hou
 sing market sentiment and its effect on real house prices is highly persis
 tent. The results also reveal that the dynamic relation between sentiment 
 and house prices can create feedback effects which contribute to the persi
 stence typically observed in house price movements during boom and bust cy
 cles.\n\nBiography:\nJoseph Ooi is the Deputy Head (Academic) at the Depar
 tment of Real Estate\, National University of Singapore (NUS). He is a Fel
 low of the NUS Teaching Academy and Director of the NUS Graduate Certifica
 te in Real Estate Finance. Joseph is currently a Visiting Scholar at the U
 niversity of Cambridge.\nJoseph has published more than 40 peer-reviewed p
 apers on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Real Estate Development
  in top real estate journals\, such as Real Estate Economics\, Journal of 
 Real Estate Finance and Economics\, Journal of Real Estate Research\, Urba
 n Studies\, Regional Science & Urban Economics\, Journal of Regional Scien
 ce and Journal of Money\, Credit & Banking.\nJoseph has won more than fift
 een research awards and three outstanding service awards internationally. 
 He was a recipient of the NUS Young Researcher Award (2005). A highly vers
 atile scholar who excels at teaching a broad range of subjects\, Joseph wo
 n the Outstanding Educator Award (2012)\, which is the highest award for t
 eaching in NUS. Joseph won the International Real Estate Society’s Achie
 vement Award (2008) for outstanding contribution to research\, education a
 nd practice.\nJoseph is the Associate Executive Director of the Internatio
 nal Real Estate Society. He also sits on the Board of Directors of the Asi
 an Real Estate Society as well as on the editorial of ten peer-reviewed re
 al estate journals. He pioneered the NUS MBA with Specialization in Real E
 state and served as its founding director from 2004 to 2006. A former dire
 ctor of the NUS M.Sc. (Real Estate)\, Joseph was an external examiner for 
 University of Reading’s graduate real estate programmes (2011-2014).\nPr
 ior to joining NUS\, Joseph has extensive work experience in both the loca
 l and international real estate markets. He holds B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees 
 in Real Estate from NUS and a PhD in Finance from the University of Manche
 ster (formerly UMIST).\n\n\n
LOCATION:Mill Lane Lecture Room 4
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