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SUMMARY:Are strong volcanic eruptions important for decadal climate predic
 tions? A historical perspective based on MPI-ESM ensemble simulations - Da
 vide Zanchettin (University of Venice)
DTSTART:20150520T131500Z
DTEND:20150520T141500Z
UID:TALK59118@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Amanda Maycock
DESCRIPTION:Numerical climate simulations suggest that strong tropical vol
 canic eruptions have the potential to induce dynamical responses in the co
 upled ocean-atmosphere system on decadal and even longer time scales. In t
 his talk I will illustrate different aspects of post-eruption decadal clim
 ate evolution in several historical\, paleo and idealized climate simulati
 ons performed with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth system model. In particu
 lar\, I will show how background climate conditions can modulate the stren
 gth of the feedbacks initiated by the imposed volcanic forcing and activat
 e different decadal response mechanisms. I will discuss how uncertainties 
 on both forcing and background conditions complicate the assessment of sim
 ulated decadal climate responses to strong tropical volcanic eruptions and
 \, consequently\, the predictability of decadal climate evolutions after m
 ajor volcanic events. I will conclude my talk with a brief overview on ong
 oing and planned modeling activities within the "Model Intercomparison Pro
 ject on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing"\, showing how they will
  help to identify the causes that limit robust post-eruption simulated beh
 avior across state-of-the-art coupled climate models.
LOCATION:Unilever Lecture Theatre\, Department of Chemistry
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