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SUMMARY:Pinpointing sources of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United S
 tates using a gravity model - Stephen Kissler (University of Cambridge)
DTSTART:20151015T110000Z
DTEND:20151015T123000Z
UID:TALK61659@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Stephen Kissler
DESCRIPTION:The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States featured
  striking\, and surprising\, transmission patterns. The main epidemic wave
  emanated not from a major city\, but from the less populous south-eastern
  part of the country\, and moved slowly northward\, resulting in a much lo
 nger outbreak than normal. To describe these dynamics\, we have developed 
 a disease transmission model based on the gravity model for human mobility
 . We use the model to identify key drivers of the epidemic\, locate probab
 le intra-national sources\, and map the regions in which infection can be 
 traced with high probability back to one\, two\, or three or more of these
  sources. 
LOCATION: Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, MR 12
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