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SUMMARY:&quot\;The Uses\, Abuses\, and Non-uses of Quantitative Models in 
 the British Railway Mania&quot\; - Andrew Odlyzko (University of Minnesota
 )
DTSTART:20151021T100000Z
DTEND:20151021T113000Z
UID:TALK61956@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Cambridge-INET Institute\, Faculty of Economics
DESCRIPTION:Many sources\, including scholarly ones\, claim that investors
  in the Railway Mania had no rational grounds for their profit expectation
 s. In fact\, they had available to them a systematic demand estimation met
 hodology that was required by Parliament. This methodology had proved spec
 tacularly accurate during the smaller railway mania of the 1830s\, the onl
 y instance that has been found of accurate demand prediction for a revolut
 ionary technology. However\, this method was based on several false assump
 tions\, and had that\nbeen understood\, the investment disaster of the Rai
 lway Mania could have been predicted beforehand.
LOCATION:Meade Room\, Faculty of Economics
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