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SUMMARY:Planetary Vital Signs - Charles Kennel (University of California S
 an Diego)
DTSTART:20160315T140000Z
DTEND:20160315T153000Z
UID:TALK64591@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:James Pope
DESCRIPTION:The 2015 Paris Agreement commits governments every five years 
 to set more ambitious emission reduction targets\; report on how well they
  are doing\; and track progress through a transparency and accountability 
 system. This new system for diplomacy could be more effective than the ear
 lier one\, but to make it effective the scientific community will need to 
 be ready with new goals and measures for policy progress.\nGovernment ambi
 tions will be influenced by how their publics perceive climate change. Thu
 s far\, the primary intuitive guide to thinking about it has been surface 
 air temperature. This is not enough. Over-reliance on air temperature has 
 gotten climate science in hot water with vocal segments of the public\, as
  the “hockey stick” and the more recent “hiatus” controversies ill
 ustrate.\n\nWhy do we let the world rely on surface temperature when more 
 than 90% of the energy humanity is putting into the climate system goes in
 to the ocean? As we will show\, had ocean heat had been as prominent in th
 e public’s mind as hot air\, there would be no hiatus controversy.\n\nPo
 licymakers need a basket of indicators\, just as in areas like central ban
 king\, trade policy\, and sustainable development where issues are multi-d
 imensional\, complex\, and interacting. Like medical doctors\, they need v
 ital signs. It is time for planetary vital signs. A coalition of scientist
 s and policy makers should start work to generate them at once\, since som
 e vital signs should be ready at the entry into force of the Paris Agreeme
 nt in 2020 or it will be hard to infuse any into policy processes later.  
  \n\nBut vital signs are only the beginning.  They are not indicators of r
 isk to things people  really care about.  The evaluation of the risks to h
 uman systems-health\; food\, water\, and energy security-will require a ma
 jor deployment of big data Bayesian analytics. If Amazon uses big data ana
 lytics and worldwide connectivity to provide decision support to billions 
 of consumers\, perhaps the science\, technology\, and policy community cou
 ld learn to use the same tools to serve millions of climate decision-maker
 s.\n
LOCATION:room 187\,  British Antarctic Survey\, High Cross\, Cambridge\, C
 B3 0ET
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