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SUMMARY:Disease dynamics in animal hosts: How natural selection affects di
 sease transmission in insects\; and how animal density and climatic factor
 s can influence the prevalence of zoonotic diseases - Dr David Paez\, Mont
 ana State University
DTSTART:20161019T150000Z
DTEND:20161019T160000Z
UID:TALK66809@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Fiona Roby
DESCRIPTION:Understanding disease dynamics in animal hosts is fundamental 
 to understanding the emergence of zoonotic infections and to developing pe
 st management strategies based on the use of natural enemies. One research
  question I examined recently is whether natural selection plays a role in
  driving insect host–¬pathogen population dynamics. Another question wa
 s whether we can identify mechanisms of transmission and risks of disease 
 spillover to humans through correlations between biotic and abiotic condit
 ions and disease prevalence in animals such as the Australian fruit bat. \
 nFor the first question\, I conducted research on the gypsy moth\, host to
  a baculovirus. Field experiments showed that reduced risk of infection in
  gypsy moth is heritable but costly\, confirming two key assumptions of ec
 o-evolutionary host–pathogen models.Furthermore\, when using these estim
 ated parameters\, model predictions showed population cycles that closely 
 resembled gypsy moth outbreaks in North America. The intense selection imp
 osed by natural enemies on many defoliating insects\, including the gypsy 
 moth\, suggests that eco-evolutionary theory more effectively explains gyp
 sy moth population cycles than does traditional ecological theory. This wo
 rk therefore contributed crucial evidence that eco-evolutionary dynamics o
 ccur in nature\, with important implications for insect pest management.\n
 For the second question\, I conducted research on the Australian fruit bat
  and Hendra virus. The virus is a pathogen endemic to bats\, but  can also
  spillover to horses and humans. I examined how the prevalence of the Hend
 ra virus varies in space and time. I also assessed the effects of bat abun
 dance\, and temperature and precipitation on pulses of Hendra virus preval
 ence. Evidence suggested that pulses cluster around winter months\, except
  in the central latitudes of eastern Australia where these pulses occur ea
 rlier and more strongly. Larger pulses were associated with increased bat 
 abundance and reduced rainfall in previous seasons¬. The results suggeste
 d complex interactions between bat density\, climatic factors\, and Hendra
  virus prevalence. I will therefore discuss the modeling approaches taken 
 to understand these dynamics\n\n
LOCATION:Lecture Theatre 2\, Department of Veterinary Medicine
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