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SUMMARY:Detection of climate and environmental change in the big data era 
 - Dr. Claudie Beaulieu\, Univ. Southampton
DTSTART:20161109T140000Z
DTEND:20161109T150000Z
UID:TALK66898@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Dave Munday
DESCRIPTION:Natural variability in all aspects of the Earth system – inc
 luding the climate system and ecosystems – presents a formidable challen
 ge to the detection and quantification of change forced by industrial acti
 vities. Error in detection can disrupt concerted efforts to respond to the
  challenges of Earth system change\, whereas statistically robust quantifi
 cation informs our understanding of underlying mechanisms of change and he
 lps to improve predictions into the future. The rate of observed climate c
 hange results from the superposition of natural and anthropogenic forcing 
 and its robust estimation needs to objectively detect the timing of change
 s in the trend as well as their magnitude. Quantifying the rate of climate
  change is further challenged by “memory”\, i.e. red noise\, within th
 e climate system\, which can lead to overconfidence in the detected change
 . In this talk\, I describe a new approach to separate unsteady long-term 
 change from red noise\, which clarifies a key point in the scientific deba
 te related to the recent “hiatus” in warming.\n\nMarine ecosystems may
  also respond to climate change\, but detecting these impacts is hindered 
 by the long timescale of memory within the ocean such that time-series ana
 lysis of satellite data is still inconclusive as to the sign of change in 
 ocean chlorophyll. Here I show how utilizing both temporal and spatial dep
 endency in the available data reveals the full uncertainty in chlorophyll 
 trends and highlights regions undergoing significant change. More generall
 y\, the targeted development of specific statistical techniques is require
 d to process and make full use of the rapidly growing store of Earth syste
 m data from models and advancing observational platforms. Space-time model
 ing in particular holds promise to improve detection of climate and enviro
 nmental change in the era of big data.\n
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Room 307
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