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SUMMARY:Extreme Events and How to Live with Them - Professor Nassim Nichol
 as Taleb\, New York
DTSTART:20170127T173000Z
DTEND:20170127T183000Z
UID:TALK67301@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Janet Gibson
DESCRIPTION:Distributions that are dominated by extremes and tail events r
 equire a completely different way of thinking. We provide a classification
  and show where conventional statistical tools fail\, such as the conventi
 onal law of large numbers. We show how robust statistics is not robust at 
 all\; how frequency-based forecasting fails and how past averages misrepre
 sent future ones. We show implications for decision-making in the real wor
 ld and what modifications are required. Ironically they are often easier t
 o work with.\nSee http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html for more
  details and papers.\n\nBiography\n\nNassim Nicholas Taleb spent 21 years 
 as a risk taker  before becoming a researcher in philosophical\, mathemati
 cal and (mostly) practical problems with probability. 
 \nTaleb is the a
 uthor of a multivolume essay\, the Incerto (The Black Swan\, Fooled by Ran
 domness\, and Antifragile) covering broad facets of uncertainty. It has be
 en translated into 36 languages. \nIn addition to his trader life\, Taleb 
 has also published\, as a backup of the Incerto\, more than 45 scholarly p
 apers in statistical physics\, statistics\, philosophy\, ethics\, economic
 s\, international affairs\, and quantitative finance\, all around the noti
 on of risk and probability.  He spent time as a professional researcher (D
 istinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU's School of Engineering 
 and Dean's Professor at U. Mass Amherst). His current focus is on the prop
 erties of systems that can handle disorder ("antifragile"). \nTaleb refuse
 s all honors and anything that "turns knowledge into a spectator sport".
LOCATION:LMH\, Lady Mitchell Hall
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