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SUMMARY:A model for super El Ninos - Dr Saji Hameed\, University of Aizu\,
  Japan
DTSTART:20160907T113000Z
DTEND:20160907T123000Z
UID:TALK67396@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mike Davey
DESCRIPTION:Two aspects of ENSO that have attracted widespread\nattention 
 in recent times are the diversity in the spatial structure of ENSO events 
 and the existence of super El Nino events.\nWe have revisited the problem 
 of how the tropical atmosphere responds to deep convective heating pattern
 s of relevance to ENSO\, using a dry\natmospheric model that incorporates 
 a realistic background state. We show that atmospheric state changes broug
 ht about by El Nino constrain\nthermally forced solutions in such a way th
 at SST variability is suppressed (enhanced) over the eastern (central) Pac
 ific. This implies\nthat coupled dynamics inherent to the Pacific cannot a
 ccount for the so-called canonical ENSO pattern that is characterized by s
 trongest SST\nanomalies in the eastern Pacific. Next\, we consider the imp
 ortance of the downstream tropical circulation forced by Indian Ocean Dipo
 le (IOD) events\non surface winds over the Pacific. We show that this down
 stream effect is strong enough to have a notable impact on SST\nvariations
  over the Pacific\, and consequently in perturbing the evolution of El Nin
 o. Further\, the impact of IOD events are amplified (diminished)\nwhen it 
 co-occurs with an El Nino (La Nina) event. Our results suggest that a sync
 hrony of IOD and ENSO dynamics is necessary for the so-called\nsuper El Ni
 no events to develop. Finally\, we argue that a large part of ENSO diversi
 ty\, often presented as the existence of two kind of El\nNino events\, is 
 an artefact\, arising from the lumping of the rare but extreme super El Ni
 no events together with more moderate events
LOCATION:MR14\,  Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, Wilberforce Road\, Cam
 bridge
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