BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Representing uncertainty in numerical climate models - Nadja Leith
 \, UCL
DTSTART:20070522T133000Z
DTEND:20070522T143000Z
UID:TALK6778@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Nikolaos Demiris
DESCRIPTION:It is recognised that projections of future climate can differ
  widely between climate models. It is therefore necessary to account for c
 limate model uncertainty in any risk assessment exercise. Here we suggest 
 that a hierarchical statistical model\, implemented in a Bayesian framewor
 k\, provides a logically coherent and interpretable way to think about cli
 mate model uncertainty in general. The ideas will be illustrated by consid
 ering the generation of future daily rainfall sequences at a single locati
 on in the UK\, based on the outputs of four different climate models under
  the SRES A2 emissions scenario.
LOCATION:Large Seminar Room\, 1st Floor\, Institute of Public Health\, Uni
 versity Forvie Site\, Robinson Way\, Cambridge
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR