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SUMMARY:Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart - Prof Gerd Gigerenzer\, Max 
 Planck Institute for Human Development\, Germany 
DTSTART:20161122T130000Z
DTEND:20161122T140000Z
UID:TALK67830@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Johanna M Lukate
DESCRIPTION:As reflected in the amount of controversy\, few areas in psych
 ology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade a
 s the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive p
 rocesses\, conscious or unconscious\, that ignore part of the information.
  Because using heuristics saves effort\, the classical view has been that 
 heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as d
 efined by logic or statistical models. However\, for many decisions\, the 
 assumptions of rational models are not met\, and it is an empirical rather
 \nthan an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an unce
 rtain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do
  people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When sh
 ould people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to ma
 ke better judgments?")\, formal models are indispensable.\nWe review resea
 rch that tests formal models of heuristic inference\, including in busines
 s organizations\, health care\, and legal institutions. This research indi
 cates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristi
 cs in an adaptive way\, and (b) ignoring part of the information\ncan lead
  to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding\nall information\, f
 or instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future chall
 enge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristic
 s as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploi
 t.
LOCATION:Ground Floor Lecture Theatre\, Department of Psychology\, Downing
  Site
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