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SUMMARY:St Catharine's Political Economy Seminar Series - Speakers: Graham
  Gudgin and Ken Coutts   - Speaker to be confirmed
DTSTART:20161116T180000Z
DTEND:20161116T193000Z
UID:TALK68017@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Philippa Millerchip
DESCRIPTION:*Talk Title*: ‘Why fiscal targets for the UK economy are a b
 ad idea’\n\nThe next St Catharine's Political Economy Seminar in the ser
 ies on the Economics of Austerity\, will be held on 16 November 2016 – G
 raham Gudgin and Ken Coutts will give a talk on ‘Why fiscal targets for 
 the UK economy are a bad idea’. The seminar will be held in the Ramsden 
 Room at St Catharine's College from 6.00-7.30 pm. All are welcome. The sem
 inar series is supported by the Cambridge Journal of Economics and the Eco
 nomics and Policy Group at the Cambridge Judge Business School.\n\n*Speake
 rs*:\nGraham Gudgin is currently Honorary Research Associate at the Centre
  For Business Research (CBR) in the Judge Business School at the Universit
 y of Cambridge. He was director of the Northern Ireland Economic Research 
 Centre from 1985 to 1998 when he became Special Adviser to the First Minis
 ter in the NI Assembly until 2002. Prior to this he was a member of the Ca
 mbridge Economic Policy Group (CEPG) under the late Wynne Godley. He is th
 e author of a large number of books\, reports and journal articles on regi
 onal economic growth in the UK and on the growth of small firms.  Current 
 research interests at the CBR are in UK macro-economic policy. Together wi
 th Ken Coutts at Cambridge and colleagues at the Ulster University an econ
 ometric model of the UK economy has been constructed to undertake policy s
 imulations for the UK economy. The first forecast report (winter 2015) and
  a description of the model can be found on the CBR website.\n\nKen Coutts
  is currently Honorary Research Associate at the Centre For Business Resea
 rch (CBR) in the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge and 
 Life Fellow in Economics\, Selwyn College\, Cambridge. He was formerly Dir
 ector of Studies in the Faculty of Economics\, University of Cambridge. A 
 member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group in his younger career\, led 
 by Wynne Godley\, his main interests are in macroeconomics\, monetary and 
 fiscal policy\, trade\, capital flows and balance of payments. He has publ
 ished widely in these areas.  He has also written extensively on the prici
 ng behaviour of manufacturing industries in the UK and Australia. He is cu
 rrently working on macro-economic policy issues in the UK.\n \n*Talk Overv
 iew*:\nGraham Gudgin and Ken Coutts will talk on ‘Why fiscal targets for
  the UK economy are a bad idea’. Two of the Chancellor of the Exchequer
 ’s administrative innovations have been firstly the use of targets for t
 he fiscal deficit and the public sector debt to GDP ratio\, and secondly a
 n independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The fiscal targets w
 ere comprehensively missed by the 2010-15 Administration\, but undaunted t
 he Chancellor set new targets for 2015-20. We believe that these latest ta
 rgets will also be missed because the UK economy will grow more slowly tha
 n the OBR believes. The OBR is at the centre of the Government’s targeti
 ng and is lavishly cited in the Chancellor’s Budget and Autumn Statement
  speeches. However the OBR’s forecasts for GDP and hence tax revenues an
 d much else\, are really arbitrary assumptions and\, in our view\, should 
 not be used to guide policy. The wider long-term target of a balanced budg
 et makes little economic sense\, is probably unattainable and should be dr
 opped. The seminar will discuss the implications of reflation policies wit
 h no fiscal targets.\nPlease contact the seminar organisers \nPhilip Arest
 is (pa267@cam.ac.uk) and Michael Kitson (mk24@cam.ac.uk) in the event of a
  query.\n
LOCATION:The Ramsden Room\, St Catharine's College
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