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SUMMARY:Bayesian reconstruction of a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Cha
 racterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England -
  Paul Birrell\, MRC Biostatistics Unit
DTSTART:20161111T160000Z
DTEND:20161111T170000Z
UID:TALK68167@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
DESCRIPTION:Understanding how the geographic distribution of\, and movemen
 ts within\, a population influence the spatial spread of infections is cru
 cial for the design of interventions to curb transmission. Existing knowle
 dge is typically based on results from simulation studies whereas analyses
  of real data remain sparse. The main difficulty in quantifying the spatia
 l pattern of disease spread is the paucity of available data together with
  the challenge of incorporating the limited information into models of dis
 ease transmission. To address this challenge the role of routine migration
  on the spatial pattern of infection during the epidemic of 2009 pandemic 
 influenza in England is investigated here through two modelling approaches
 : parallel-region models\, where epidemics in different regions are assume
 d to occur in isolation with shared characteristics\; and meta-region mode
 ls where inter-region transmission is expressed as a function of the commu
 ter flux between regions. Results highlight that the significantly less co
 mputationally demanding parallel-region approach is sufficiently flexible 
 to capture the underlying dynamics. This suggests that inter-region moveme
 nt is either inaccurately characterized by the available commuting data or
  insignificant once its initial impact on transmission has subsided.
LOCATION:Meeting room 15\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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