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SUMMARY:Understanding recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere s
 urface climate - Dr Julie Jones\, University Sheffield
DTSTART:20161122T140000Z
DTEND:20161122T150000Z
UID:TALK68855@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Alexandra Weiss
DESCRIPTION:Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variabi
 lity in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instr
 umental record. Here\, we analyse recent atmosphere\, surface ocean and se
 a-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context o
 f palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year sa
 tellite era\, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent\, su
 rface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interan
 nual to decadal variability. Most observed trends\, however\, are not unus
 ual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two cen
 turies. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular M
 ode\, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not
  compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variabili
 ty overwhelms the forced response in the observations\, but the models may
  not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magn
 itude of the forced response.\n
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Room 330B
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