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SUMMARY:How will the storm tracks change? High resolution studies of the f
 uture of extratropical storm tracks - Walter Robinson\, Department of Mari
 ne\, Earth\, and Atmospheric Sciences\, North Carolina State University
DTSTART:20161207T130000Z
DTEND:20161207T140000Z
UID:TALK69281@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:9780
DESCRIPTION:Extratropical cyclones derive much of their energy from the re
 lease of latent heat. Within cyclones\, precipitation occurs largely on th
 e meteorological mesoscale. This suggests that cyclone development cannot 
 be fully simulated at climate-model grid scales of 100 km or more. At the 
 same time\, projections of global warming indicate that specific humidity 
 will increase with global warming at a pace close to that dictated by the 
 Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Taken together\, these facts facts lead to tw
 o hypotheses:\n\n	1) Simulated cyclone development is sensitive to model g
 rid scale\, and enhanced development at improved resolution can be attribu
 ted to improved simulation of diabatic processes.\n	2) The sensitivity of 
 simulated storm tracks to global warming will increase with model resoluti
 on (and the sensitivity of the storm tracks to resolution will increase wi
 th warming).	\n\nThese hypotheses have been examined in regional simulatio
 ns of the North American/North Atlantic storm track\, varying resolution a
 nd carried out under current and future climatic conditions. Results are c
 onsistent with expectations (Wiillison et al.\, 2013 & 2015). Complexity e
 merges\, however\, when simulations are carried out in a global domain\, t
 hus relaxing constraints imposed by lateral boundaries. In a global model\
 , it is found that the sensitivity of the storm track to global warming do
 es increase with enhanced resolution in the North Pacific\, but not in the
  North Atlantic. in the latter region\, the loss of energy from synoptic e
 ddies to variability in the large-scale flow increases in future simulatio
 ns.\n\nThese result imply that current climate model resolutions are inade
 quate for projecting future changes extratropical cyclones and the storm t
 racks and that results from regional modeling (a.k.a. dynamical downscalin
 g) must be treated with extreme caution wherever upscale transfers of ener
 gy are important.
LOCATION:MR12\,  Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, Wilberforce Road\, Cam
 bridge
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