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SUMMARY:A network epidemic model with preventive rewiring: comparative ana
 lysis of the initial phase - Tom Britton (Stockholm University)
DTSTART:20161213T093000Z
DTEND:20161213T103000Z
UID:TALK69474@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:<span>         Co-authors: Joan Saldana 		(Universitat de Giro
 na)\, David Juher 		(Universitat de Girona)        <br></span><span>&nbsp\
 ;<br>This talk is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models o
 n  random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected  nei
 ghbors at some rate &omega\; (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals 
  with probability &alpha\; or else simply drop the edge if &alpha\;=0)\, s
 o-called  preventive rewiring. The models are denoted SIR-&omega\; and SEI
 R-&omega\;\, and we  focus attention on the early stages of an outbreak\, 
 where we derive  expression for the basic reproduction number R0 and the e
 xpected degree  of the infectious nodes E(DI) using two different approxim
 ation  approaches. The first approach approximates the early spread of an 
  epidemic by a branching process\, whereas the second one uses pair  appro
 ximation. The expressions are compared with the corresponding  empirical m
 eans obtained from stochastic simulations of SIR-&omega\; and SEIR-&omega\
 ;  epidemics on Poisson and scale-free networks. To appear in Bull Math  B
 iol.</span>
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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