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SUMMARY:Mathematical modelling of the citrus disease Huanglongbing - Andre
 w Craig\, Gilligan Group
DTSTART:20170309T130000Z
DTEND:20170309T133000Z
UID:TALK69936@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:42122
DESCRIPTION:In managing plant diseases\, especially those of perennial and
  plantation crops\, there is often a tension between regulators seeking to
  destroy infected plants to prevent the further spread of the disease and 
 growers seeking to retain infected plants to maximise their yields. This h
 as been the case for the Huanglongbing ('citrus greening') in Brazil. In a
 n effort to prevent Huanglongbing's spread\, the Brazilian government has 
 regulated that if 28% of block of trees is found to be symptomatic then th
 e whole block will be destroyed. This rule is based on the assumption that
  a 28% detectable prevalence is likely to mean that the actual prevalence 
 is 100%. We use a mathematical model to evaluate this assumption\, and sho
 w that the relationship between detectable and actual levels of infection 
 is much wider than allowed for in the Government scheme. There is a high p
 robability that orchards with levels of symptomatic plants substantially b
 elow 28% have a very high (> 90%) prevalence of infected plants. Rather th
 an setting an arbitrary prevalence threshold that would be considered acce
 ptable by both growers and the regulator\, future regulations should inste
 ad focus on co-ordinated spraying amongst owners to control the insect vec
 tor of HLB on a regional level. 
LOCATION:Department of Plant Sciences\, Large Lecture Theatre
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