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SUMMARY:Sleeping Beauty’s Credences - Mark Schervisch (CMU)
DTSTART:20170203T160000Z
DTEND:20170203T170000Z
UID:TALK70610@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Quentin Berthet
DESCRIPTION:The Sleeping Beauty problem has spawned a debate between “th
 irders” and “halfers” who draw conflicting conclusions about Sleepin
 g Beauty's credence that a coin lands heads. Our analysis is based on a pr
 obability model for what Sleeping Beauty knows at each time during the exp
 eriment. We show that conflicting conclusions result from different modeli
 ng assumptions that each group makes. Our analysis uses a standard “Baye
 sian” account of rational belief with conditioning. No special handling 
 is used for self-locating beliefs or centered propositions. We also explor
 e what fair prices Sleeping Beauty computes for gambles that she might be 
 offered during the experiment.\n\nJoint work with Jessi Cisewski\, Joseph 
 B. Kadane\, Teddy Seidenfeld\, and Rafael Stern
LOCATION:MR12\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences\, Wilberforce Road\, Camb
 ridge.
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