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SUMMARY:Robert Hanson on Prediction Markets - Robert Hanson
DTSTART:20170603T183000Z
DTEND:20170603T193000Z
UID:TALK72803@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:A. Kapila
DESCRIPTION:\n\nShould we vote on values\, but bet on beliefs?\n\nIndividu
 als can struggle to make accurate predictions about the future\, but a 'pr
 ediction market' can take inputs from large groups and many experts and se
 ttle upon a probability\, just as a trade market settles on a value for a 
 particular good. These prediction markets often outperform experts and can
  help us to understand what the outcome would be of implementing any parti
 cular policy.\n\nThe Future of Sentience Society is delighted to welcome R
 obin Hanson\, a Professor of Economics at George Mason University\, resear
 ch associate of the Future of Humanity Institute\, and critically acclaime
 d author who was responsible for the first corporate prediction market and
  invented the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule. He'll introduce us to his c
 oncept of "futarchy"\, a system where a policy would become law if the mar
 ket predicted it would increase national welfare\, with 'welfare' defined 
 by elected representatives. We'll then have approximately forty minutes fo
 r Q&A.\n\nCome along if you want to learn more about how prediction market
 s work\, how we can use them to get a clearer picture of the uncertain fut
 ure\, and how we can apply such predictions to our decision-making.\n\nThi
 s is a talk hosted by our sister society\, Future of Sentience Cambridge.
LOCATION:Webb Library\, Jesus College
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