BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk//
X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Investigating future changes in the volume budget of the Arctic se
 a ice in a coupled climate model - Ann Keen (Met Office)
DTSTART:20170915T105000Z
DTEND:20170915T111000Z
UID:TALK79431@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Arctic September sea ice cover has declined at a rate of 13% p
 er decade since satellite observations began\, and there is much interest 
 in how this decline will continue in the future\, both in terms of the pre
 dictability of ice cover in a given year\, and in terms of the manner and 
 timing of the transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Global coupled m
 odels are arguably the best tool we have for making future projections of 
 the Arctic sea ice\, but generate a wide spread of projections of future i
 ce decline. There are many factors potentially contributing to this spread
 \, and it is becoming increasingly clear that as well as investigating &ls
 quo\;integrated&rsquo\; quantities like ice cover and volume directly\, it
  is also necessary to consider\, compare and evaluate the underlying proce
 sses\, and how they change.  &nbsp\;  <br><br>Here we consider the volume 
 budget of the sea ice in the Arctic Basin in the HadGEM2-ES global coupled
  model (which was the UK/Met Office contribution to CMIP5)\, and how the b
 udget components evolve during the 21st century under a range of different
  forcing scenarios. In terms of what happens per unit surface area of the 
 ice\, the processes that change most as the climate warms are summer melti
 ng at the top surface of the ice\, and basal melting due to extra heat fro
 m the warming ocean. However\, due to the declining ice cover these are no
 t the budget components that contribute most to reductions in the ice volu
 me\, and the largest budget change is a reduction in the total amount of b
 asal ice formation during the autumn and early winter.  &nbsp\;  <br><span
 ><br>The choice of forcing scenario affects the rate of ice decline and th
 e timing of change in the volume budget components\, but for this model an
 d for the range of scenarios considered for CMIP5\, the mean changes in th
 e volume budget depend on the evolving ice area\, and are independent of t
 he speed at which the ice cover declines.</span>
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR