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SUMMARY:Chance\, Probability and Rankings: the Truth About League Tables -
  Professor David Spiegelhalter\, Winton Professor of the Public Understand
 ing of Risk\, University of Cambridge
DTSTART:20071114T170000Z
DTEND:20071114T180000Z
UID:TALK8465@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:6775
DESCRIPTION:*Sports teams\, schools\, hospitals\, universities\, films\, o
 nline gamers: they all get ranked into league tables. But do these ranking
 s mean anything? Does being top of the league really equate to being the b
 est?* This lecture considers how the play of chance can influence rankings
 \, and how we can use the theory of probability (and some computing power)
  to see whether the cup-winning team was just lucky. In passing\, we shall
  explain the curse of ‘Hello’ magazine\, as well as why tall people te
 nd to have shorter children. Using local data on MRSA rates in hospitals\,
  SAT scores in primary schools\, teenage pregnancy in local authorities an
 d so on\, we will see why league tables are often not to be trusted.\n\n*A
 udience:* General public\, ages 16+ \n\n*About the speaker:* David Spiegel
 halter has made extensive contributions to theoretical and practical aspec
 ts of statistical methodology for complex problems\, especially in the hea
 lth sciences. In addition to the Winton Professorship\, David is a Senior 
 Scientist in the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit\, located at 
 the University of Cambridge’s Institute of Public Health.\n\n*Admission 
 to all our lectures is free but by ticket only: please email Heather Benuc
 ci using the 'mmptalks' link above\; state clearly the date and title of t
 he lecture you would like to attend and how many tickets you require\,* an
 d we will confirm your ticket allocation by email.
LOCATION:MR2\, Mathematical Sciences\, Centre for
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