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SUMMARY:Causal decision theory and tragic evidence: Death in Damascus revi
 sited - Melissa Fusco (Columbia University)
DTSTART:20171108T130000Z
DTEND:20171108T143000Z
UID:TALK85471@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:31287
DESCRIPTION:Recent literature on causal decision theory (CDT) has featured
  \nmuch discussion of what Hare & Hedden call "decision dependence"---the 
 \nfact that\, for a causalist\, the expected utility of an act a can \nsom
 etimes depend on how confident one is that one will perform a.\n\nIn this 
 talk\, I will focus on decision dependent cases in which CDTers \nbelieve 
 that they are subject to tragic evidential correlations \n(henceforth TECs
 ).  According to the standard theory\, the more confident \na CDTer grows 
 that she will perform a given act a in a TEC case\, the \nmore confident s
 he becomes that she will regret doing a. Yet as Joyce \n(2012) puts it\, i
 n such cases the CDTer "[does] not...fully trust the \naccuracy of the fut
 ure beliefs on which [her] regrets about [her act] \nwill be based." This 
 talk will be devoted to sketching the accuracy \nargument both in TEC case
 s and in their causal analogues.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Department of History and Philosophy of Science
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