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SUMMARY:Conservation for the 21st Century: thinking about land use in the 
 long run - population\, food security and urbanisation - Professor Timothy
  Swanson\, The Graduate Institute\, Geneva
DTSTART:20171019T130000Z
DTEND:20171019T140000Z
UID:TALK89441@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Pablo Salas
DESCRIPTION:Conservation will be shaped by some fairly significant forces 
 over this century\, as the human population reaches its apogee (at around 
 12 b.)\, food requirements expand in tandem\, and agriculture struggles to
  meet these needs.  How will conservation of land continue in this context
 \, and what sorts of policies will aid in ensuring that some lands continu
 e to exist outside of agriculture over this century?  This paper reports o
 n the results of an integrated growth model (the MAVA model) – that demo
 nstrates how we might expect technology\, population and agriculture to re
 spond to these challenges over the next 80 years.  We find that the expect
 ed slowdowns in population and economic growth indicate that the planet wi
 ll reach plateaus in most forms of land exploitation in the coming century
 \, but that policy choice will be important in determining how conservatio
 n will get through this.  We examine a wide range of policies (food restri
 ctions\, land use restrictions\, technology restrictions\, and others) –
  applied over the entire century – to examine what sorts of intervention
 s will matter for ensuring conservation in the 21st century.  
LOCATION:David Attenborough Building\, New Museums Site\, Room 2.49
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