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SUMMARY:Probabilistic aspects of multi-element systems failure - Dmitry On
 ishchenko (Gazprom VNIIGAZ\; Ishlinsky Institute for Problems in Mechanics
  RAS )
DTSTART:20171109T143000Z
DTEND:20171109T153000Z
UID:TALK94774@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:The problem of the determination of ice loads (or actions in I
 SO terminology) on offshore structures is essentially more difficult\, fro
 m the methodological point of view\, as compared with other environmental 
 factors\, such as wind\, waves\, currents. An engineer needs much more ela
 borated probabilistic approach for the ice case to determine the design va
 lues of ice loads\, which yearly exceedance levels are set usually as 0\,0
 1 and lower. Reasons for this are well known: first\, floating ice is dive
 rse in shape\, ice feature morphology is complicated and a number of ice s
 tructure parameters are not available for direct measuring at that\, and s
 econd\, in most cases ice load is a straightforward result of ice failure\
 , a process that due to its physical nature has a very high level of inter
 nal uncertainty. In fact\, it is reasonable to treat ice failure as a stru
 ctural failure of a multi-element system\, and in conditions when the indi
 vidual elements have a non-trivial properties.  The lecture\, first\, pres
 ents some basic ideas on probability aspects of multi-element systems fail
 ure that is closely related to the general subject of the reliability of s
 tructures. Then\, with the help of a number of simple probabilistic models
 \, the cases of level ice\, ridges and icebergs impacts on offshore struct
 ures are presented. Certain attention i s given to a discussion on the ove
 rall reliability of the procedure of design ice load determination\, which
  is closely connected with the accuracy of the probability distribution fu
 nctions describing ice parameters and the adequacy of load equations.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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