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SUMMARY:Long Range Predictability of the winter atmosphere in the North At
 lantic Sector. - Professor Adam Scaife\, Met Office
DTSTART:20171205T140000Z
DTEND:20171205T150000Z
UID:TALK95176@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Dr Gillian Young
DESCRIPTION:Skilful climate predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscil
 lation have recently been demonstrated for seasonal to interannual lead ti
 mes. A large proportion of this skill is driven by highly skilful seasonal
  tropical rainfall predictions\, which in turn lead to extratropical atmos
 pheric circulation anomalies that project onto the NAO and are approximate
 ly symmetric about the equator\, resembling steady poleward propagating li
 near Rossby waves. This mechanism explains a sizable fraction of the predi
 cted variation in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and appears to be 
 responsible for the recent extreme winters of 2013/14 and 2015/16. I will 
 also present an update on the intriguing "signal to noise paradox"\, where
 by predictable signals in the climate model appear to be smaller than pred
 ictable signals in the real world.
LOCATION:British Antarctic Survey\, Room 307
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