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SUMMARY:Uncertainty quantification in demography: Challenges and possible 
 solutions - Jakub Bijak (University of Southampton)
DTSTART:20180109T160000Z
DTEND:20180109T170000Z
UID:TALK97486@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Demography\, with its over 350 years of history\, is renowned 
 for its empiricism\, firm links with statistics\, and the lack of a strong
  theoretical background. The uncertainty of demographic processes is well 
 acknowledged\, and over the past three decades\, methods have been designe
 d for quantifying the uncertainty in population estimates and forecasts. I
 n parallel\, developments in model-based demographic simulation methods\, 
 such as agent-based modelling\, have recently offered a promise of sheddin
 g some light on the complexity of population processes. However\, the exis
 ting approaches are still far from fulfilling this promise\, and are thems
 elves fraught with epistemological pitfalls. Crucially\, complex problems 
 are not analytically tractable with the use of traditional methods. In thi
 s talk\, I will discuss the potential of uncertainty quantification in bri
 nging together the empirical data\, statistical inference and computer sim
 ulations\, with insights into behavioural and social theory and knowledge 
 of social mechanisms. The discussion will be illustrated by an example of 
 a new research programme on model-based migration studies.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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