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SUMMARY:The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the submarine melting feedba
 ck - Robert Arthern ( British Antarctic Survey)
DTSTART:20180201T113000Z
DTEND:20180201T123000Z
UID:TALK97648@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Catherine Pearson
DESCRIPTION:We use an ice sheet model with realistic initial conditions to
  forecast how the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica responds to recen
 tly observed rates of submarine melting. In these simulations\, we isolate
  the effects of a positive feedback\, driven by submarine melt in new ocea
 n cavities flooded during retreat\, by allowing the present climate\, calv
 ing front and melting beneath existing ice shelves to persist over the 21s
 t century. Even without additional forcing from changes in climate\, ice s
 helf collapse\, or ice cliff collapse\, the model predicts slow\, sustaine
 d retreat of West Antarctica\, driven by the marine ice sheet instability 
 and current levels of ocean-driven melting. When observed rates of melting
  are included in new subglacial ocean cavities\, the simulated sea level c
 ontribution increases\, and for sufficiently intense melting it accelerate
 s over time. Conditional Bayesian probabilities for sea level contribution
 s can be derived but will require improved predictions of ocean heat deliv
 ery.
LOCATION:Open Plan Area\, BP Institute\, Madingley Rise CB3 0EZ
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