BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk// X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY: St Catharine’s Political Economy Seminar - ‘How Did the Econo mics Profession Get it Wrong on Brexit?’by Graham Gudgin &\; Ken Cout ts - Graham Gudgin &\; Ken Coutts DTSTART:20180131T180000Z DTEND:20180131T193000Z UID:TALK98161@talks.cam.ac.uk CONTACT:Philippa Millerchip DESCRIPTION:*Date:* Wednesday\, 31 January 2018\n*Time:* 18:00 -19:30\n*Sp eakers:* Graham Gudgin and Ken Coutts \n*Talk Title:* ‘How Did the Eco nomics Profession Get it Wrong on Brexit?’\n*Location:* Ramsden Room\, S t Catharine's College \n\nDate: Wednesday\, 31 January 2018\nTime: 18:00 - 19:30\nSpeakers: Graham Gudgin and Ken Coutts \nTalk Title: \nLocation: Ramsden Room\, St Catharine's College \n\n\nThe next St Catharine's Politi cal Economy Seminar in the series on the Economics of Austerity\, will be held on 31 January\, 2018 - Graham Gudgin and Ken Coutts will give a talk on "How Did the Economics Profession Get it Wrong on Brexit?". The seminar will be held in the Ramsden Room at St Catharine's College from 6.00-7.30 pm. All are welcome. The seminar series is supported by the Cambridge Jou rnal of Economics and the Economics and Policy Group at the Cambridge Judg e Business School.\n\nSpeakers:\nGraham Gudgin is currently Honorary Resea rch Associate at the Centre For Business Research (CBR) in the Judge Busin ess School at the University of Cambridge. He is also Chief Economic Advis or at Policy Exchange\, London\, visiting Professor at the University of U lster and Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre. He was senior Economic Advisor at Oxford Economics from 20 07 to 2015 and was director of the Northern Ireland Economic Research Cent re from 1985 to 1998 when he became Special Adviser to the First Minister in the Northern Ireland Assembly until 2002. Prior to this he was economic s fellow at Selwyn College\, Cambridge and a member of the Cambridge Econo mic Policy Group under Wynne Godley. He is the author of a large number of books\, reports and journal articles on regional economic growth in the U K\, the growth of small firms and electoral systems. He is currently worki ng with Ken Coutts on a macro-economic model and forecasts for the UK econ omy and on the economic impact of Brexit.\nKen Coutts is Honorary Research Associate at the Centre For Business Research (CBR) in the Judge Business School \, Emeritus Assistant Director of Studies in the Faculty of Econom ics\, and Life Fellow in Economics\, Selwyn College\, at the University of Cambridge. A member of the Cambridge Economic Policy Group in his younger career\, led by the late Wynne Godley\, his main interests are in macroec onomics\, monetary and fiscal policy\, trade\, capital flows and balance o f payments. He has published widely in these areas. He has also written e xtensively on the pricing behaviour of manufacturing industries in the UK and Australia. He is currently working with Graham Gudgin a macro-economic model and forecasts for the UK economy and on the economic impact of Brex it.\n\nTalk Overview:\nThis contribution examines in detail the prediction s of professional economic forecasters on the economic impact of Brexit. I t shows how these were flawed\, and speculates on why they are no longer q uoted. It begins with the frequently repeated claim\, that membership of t he EEC/EU has been good for economic growth in the UK. This is followed by a brief reprise of our critique of the gravity model work of HMT and OECD . The approach of the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE\, uses a different approach\, but again\, in our view\, is flawed. All of this work predicts that the volume of UK trade with the EU will fall substantially after Brexit\, with no offsetting gains in trade with non-EU countries. Ar ound half of the predicted declines in GDP\, come from a calculation that trade losses will have a major negative knock-on impact on productivity. O ur update of their evidence suggests that for advanced economies no such l ink exists between trade and productivity. \nThis is not an argument in fa vour of Brexit. It is instead to question the ability of the economics pro fession to provide high quality policy analysis on issues of national impo rtance.\n\nPlease contact the seminar organisers \nPhilip Arestis (pa267@c am.ac.uk) and Michael Kitson (mk24@cam.ac.uk) in the event of a query LOCATION:The Ramsden Room\, St Catharine's College END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR