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SUMMARY:Number\, probability and community: the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern data
  model\, Monte Carlo simulations and counterfactual futures in cricket - S
 iva Arumugam (Cambridge)
DTSTART:20180503T120000Z
DTEND:20180503T130000Z
UID:TALK98563@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Richard Staley
DESCRIPTION:The Duckworth-Lewis-Stern model of cricket\, used to set targe
 ts in weather-shortened matches\, is framed around two distinct concerns 
 — fairness and prediction. These two concerns are somewhat at odds with 
 one another. I will argue that the fact that this is a data model raises i
 ssues surrounding number\, probability and community. The relationship bet
 ween this model\, subsequent Monte Carlo models\, and cricket is worth exa
 mining because it both stands in for and performs a way in which 'data gov
 ernmentality' might be constructed for society at large. Data models are b
 eing used to\, for example\, determine job applications\, college entry\, 
 insurance rates\, access to credit\, voter persuasion\, and to monitor hea
 lth. In this paper\, I argue that Monte Carlo models work on and through u
 s by forming new kinds of rule-driven\, probabilistic communities oriented
  towards counterfactual futures.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 2\, Department of History and Philosophy of Science
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