Abstract

The World Health Organization has earmarked many of the neglected tropical diseases (NTD) for elimination by 2030, principally by so-called preventive chemotherapy. Reaching these ambitious targets faces many challenges, and increasingly mathematical models are being used to evaluate the likely effectiveness of alternative and refined intervention strategies in accelerating the path towards elimination. Here, I introduce the underlying theoretical basis of elimination and highlight some of the key unknowns and uncertainties in the biology and epidemiology of NTDs that may impede progress towards this goal. Drawing on examples from schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases and onchocerciasis, I illustrate how mathematical and statistical modelling approaches are being used to resolve some of these unknowns and inform policy decision-making on potential solutions to the emerging challenges faced by elimination programmes. I conclude by speculating on the future of NTDs, including the feasibility of sustaining elimination beyond 2030.

We encourage in person attendance but the talk will also be streamed via zoom