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Jonathon Mellor (UKHSA)
Wednesday 24 January 2024, 14:00-15:00
Short term forecasting of Acute Respiratory Infections and their impact on NHS hospital pressures for situational awareness over Winter.
- 👤 Speaker: Jonathon Mellor (UKHSA)
- 📅 Date & Time: Wednesday 24 January 2024, 14:00 - 15:00
- 📍 Venue: Zoom
Abstract
Mitigations put in place during the SARS -Cov-2 pandemic supressed the transmission of seasonal respiratory viruses. There was an anticipated resurgence of non-COVID-19 seasonal respiratory diseases in Winter 2022-23 which were much harder to predict following extremely low pandemic baselines. These diseases caused an additive burden on healthcare systems, in the context of ongoing COVID -19 waves. We developed modelling methods to short term forecast a range of acute respiratory infections (COVID-19, Influenza, RSV ) at a range of geographies and metrics meaningful to healthcare managers. These forecasts used a range of Generalised Additive Models, time series techniques, leading indicators, and ensemble methods to improve assessments of trends.
Series This talk is part of the Worms and Bugs series.
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