Abstract

Forecasting the dispersion of volcanic ash with precision presents a formidable challenge, especially in remote volcanic locations where uncertainties regarding ash emission timing, quantity, and vertical distribution are considerable. This seminar introduces methodologies aimed at quantifying these uncertainties more effectively. By utilising ensemble forecasting techniques that address various sources of uncertainty, forecasts often exhibit low confidence levels, complicating decision-making processes. To enhance forecast reliability, I will demonstrate a method which integrates ensemble volcanic ash predictions with satellite data through data assimilation methods, thereby refining emission estimates and improving forecast confidence. Application of a risk-based approach to these refined simulations enables effective mitigation of high-risk areas, reducing disruptions to aviation operations. These findings provide insights to enable the transition to probabilistic volcanic ash forecasting.