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Methods for inferring the end of infectious disease outbreaks

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MIPW01 - Modelling and inference for pandemic preparedness - a focussed workshop

Following the apparent final case in an outbreak of a severe disease such as Ebola virus disease (EVD), the decision to declare the outbreak over must balance societal benefits of relaxing interventions against the risk of resurgence. Estimates of the end-of-outbreak probability (the probability that no future cases will occur) provide quantitative evidence that can inform the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration. Here, we present recently developed methods for estimating the end-of-outbreak probability, considering data from historical EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

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Hybrid: Seminar room, SPRI & Zoom - email organiser for details FW09 - William Gates Building LR3B, Department of Engineering and online (Zoom)

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