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Graphical communication of variability, risk and uncertainty

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  • UserDavid Spiegelhalter (Cambridge)
  • ClockWednesday 13 June 2012, 16:30-17:30
  • HouseMR2, CMS.

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In standard scientific publications, graphical communication of uncertainty is generally limited to error bars. It can be argued that these are both ugly and misleading, and if we genuinely want to communicate variability and uncertainty to a general audience then more imaginative methods are necessary. We will look at a wide range of suggestions that have been made, including funnel plots, density strips, spaghetti plots, fan charts, blurred icon arrays, and ‘the cone of uncertainty’. I will also try and dig up the limited formal experimental research on these different options.

This discussion will be non-technical and suitable for all.

Reference

Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

David Spiegelhalter, /Mike Pearson, Ian Short/. Science 333, 1393 (2011); DOI : 10.1126/science.1191181

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6048/1393.full.pdf?ijkey=Acpy7mOfhOfx.&keytype=ref &siteid=sci

This talk is part of the Statistics Reading Group series.

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